Hide Ya Wives, Hide Ya Kids: Worldwide Coronavirus Pandemic!

Are You Getting The Covid Vaccine?

  • Yes

  • No

  • Only if mandatory

  • Not if mandatory

  • Undecided


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Blake P

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I do think people are overcompensating right now. it's mostly young people out, just looking to do something stupid, like the people who took advantage of the protests last year. so that'll die down after the kids get over their phase.
UK's MHRA says there's no evidence that drinking alcohol interferes with COVID vaccine protection, so at least there's that!
 

Fozz

Formerly 'Fozzy Badfeet'
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Blake P

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Good thread
It seems his main argument is that once the virus is in lower circulation we can do better contact tracing. We've NEVER done a good job with contact tracing from the start of this when there were very few (underreported) cases, so I don't see why that would suddenly change. You try to trace somebody's contacts from 7-10 days ago and you'll miss the majority. I can barely remember what I did yesterday, let alone last week or the week before. Even if I remembered eating at a busy restaurant last week, you're telling me that somehow they're gonna go to that restaurant and figure out exactly who else was there and get in contact with those people?! Not gonna happen. It's possible in places like Singapore that require people to scan a QR code every time they go anywhere, so you can very easily access records of who was in the same place at the same time.
 

whywesteppin

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I don't know what models the nyt is using but herd immunity is not a fixed number. it's higher in a big city vs out on a farm. and spread isn't equal -- it's the super spreader nodes that we really need to knock out. and those nodes are more likely to have already been exposed to the virus. and vaccination isn't equal -- I think it's higher in bigger cities, which is where we need more protection.

based on what's happening in Israel and the UK, getting ~60% vaccinated MIGHT be enough to get us to a point where the virus will eventually die out, given all these caveats.

and I agree with Blake that any hope for an effective contact tracing strategy in the USA with covid is not practical given our behavior.
 

elpablo21

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I don't know what models the nyt is using but herd immunity is not a fixed number. it's higher in a big city vs out on a farm. and spread isn't equal -- it's the super spreader nodes that we really need to knock out. and those nodes are more likely to have already been exposed to the virus. and vaccination isn't equal -- I think it's higher in bigger cities, which is where we need more protection.

based on what's happening in Israel and the UK, getting ~60% vaccinated MIGHT be enough to get us to a point where the virus will eventually die out, given all these caveats.

and I agree with Blake that any hope for an effective contact tracing strategy in the USA with covid is not practical given our behavior.
60% fully or single shot?
 

Blake P

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based on what's happening in Israel and the UK, getting ~60% vaccinated MIGHT be enough to get us to a point where the virus will eventually die out.
What do you consider "die out" though? Unless immunity is long-lived and breakthrough/reinfections are super rare, I think it's more likely the virus will eventually circulate endemically and effect people more like a common cold.
 

whywesteppin

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60% fully or single shot?
With UK and Israel, many only had one shot. The second shot may be more for longevity of protection.

What do you consider "die out" though? Unless immunity is long-lived and breakthrough/reinfections are super rare, I think it's more likely the virus will eventually circulate endemically and effect people more like a common cold.
By "die out," I would mean the virus gets to a low enough level in the community that it's a rare event to see an infection... We're still at 50k cases/day, so maybe when we're down below 1k/day.

Even with herd immunity, it's going to take something like 6-12 months to die out because we started with such high levels of virus in the community this winter. Balance this against the protection from the vaccine that is strong for at least 6 months. That means it'll last for years or decades or for life. Unless there's something peculiar about covid-19 or these specific vaccines, our immune systems are pretty good at remembering.

The question for me is if we'll have variants circulating globally that come back here next fall and spread among the vulnerable (the unvaccinated and that 5-10% of the vaccinated who still get infected and the 0.x % whose immune systems aren't good at remembering)... Even then, it won't be anything like what we've dealt with the past 18 months. The flu is endemic because there are a bunch of very different components that can recombine to generate completely new strains. I haven't seen any evidence that covid-19 will do that. If we get a new covid-22 or something, that's a different story.
 
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Joined Dec 25, 2020
I have never had to be this much of a parent to my mother until recently. She is becoming increasingly irritable and acting as if she will catch covid and die if she ever dares to leave her house again. Someone behaving like this in their mid-fifties is still mind-boggling to me despite seeing this from so many of the older generations.
 

Blake P

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Joined Jun 20, 2014
I have never had to be this much of a parent to my mother until recently. She is becoming increasingly irritable and acting as if she will catch covid and die if she ever dares to leave her house again. Someone behaving like this in their mid-fifties is still mind-boggling to me despite seeing this from so many of the older generations.
On the other hand, my 65+ y/o parents are acting like they’re bulletproof after getting vaccinated, eating indoors at packed restaurants, planning vacations and going everywhere like it’s no big deal.
 
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On the other hand, my 65+ y/o parents are acting like they’re bulletproof after getting vaccinated, eating indoors at packed restaurants, planning vacations and going everywhere like it’s no big deal.
My mom turn 70 sunday. She ain't going out like that (eating out and whatnot) but shes attending church again and never really stopped hitting the store daily.

She was considering th J&J shot but after the blood clots, she found an excuse good enough to ride with no vaccine. Gonna try to talk her into taking just 1 of the Pfizer or moderna shots. Logic being something is better than nothing.
 
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storm2006

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I do think people are overcompensating right now. it's mostly young people out, just looking to do something stupid, like the people who took advantage of the protests last year. so that'll die down after the kids get over their phase.
Ima have to disagree bro. With the weather turning and summer coming up I think the young folks will only wild out more. The silver lining is that since it is they might be migrating from the city to local beaches like they would in pre-pandemic summers.
 
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A surge in cases is not the same as a surge in hospitalizations or deaths, unless variants turn more deadly. The winter surge should save all of the vulnerable. But yes, we can have 2500 cases in a bigger city of all younger folks who likely won’t die

Too many scientists feel cases is the ultimate measure

weren’t we initially concerned about overrunning hospitals? If that never happens again, this becomes a new type of seasonal flu, right?
 

whywesteppin

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Joined Mar 27, 2004
Ima have to disagree bro. With the weather turning and summer coming up I think the young folks will only wild out more. The silver lining is that since it is they might be migrating from the city to local beaches like they would in pre-pandemic summers.
True, true. In my old age, I've forgotten what summers are normally like. I'm going to be laying low until Memorial Day.

A surge in cases is not the same as a surge in hospitalizations or deaths, unless variants turn more deadly. The winter surge should save all of the vulnerable. But yes, we can have 2500 cases in a bigger city of all younger folks who likely won’t die

Too many scientists feel cases is the ultimate measure

weren’t we initially concerned about overrunning hospitals? If that never happens again, this becomes a new type of seasonal flu, right?
For my purposes, I was using cases as a measure of covid-19 dying out and no longer infecting people. Deaths are also still at 650 per day, which is higher than I thought we would be at this point. True, it's not a surge, but it hasn't really gone done in the past month. It's close to "acceptable" levels though in terms of opening back up. Keep in mind, it's not about the current level, but about whether numbers would explode if we open back up. A year ago, we'd be crazy to open up with 50k cases and 600 deaths per day because that would become 250k cases and 2000 deaths per day in a couple weeks. But now with the vaccine we can do so without these numbers blowing up.
 
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Getting my second dose of Moderna on Friday. Looking forward to not being scared of particles in the air anymore or the saliva of random women. :smokin:evil:
Just prep yourself with some Tylenol in the house in case you get chills and or muscle aches like 12-24 hours after it. It maybe be worse maybe less than others. But better safe than sorry.
 
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